"They carried all they could bear, and then some, including a silent awe for the terrible power of the things they carried." — Tim O'Brien, "The Things They Carried" (Photo Credit: CC BY/Jackie/Wikipedia)

According to some right-wing reports, there is speculation that President Obama – in light of falling approval numbers and pressure from Israel – may push for war with Iran. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen recently told “Meet the Press” that the Pentagon is in fact prepared to attack the nation bordering Afghanistan. However, such speculation may be premature. According to Front Page Magazine, war against North Korea is more likely. And from a modern business perspective, a New Korean War would be disastrous.

The coming of a New Korean War

Recent territorial clashes between North Korea and South Korea – as well as the sinking of the South Korean ship Cheonan – have drawn the United States into a fray that could easily lead to a New Korean War, suggests Front Page and other sources. Tensions are high, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s pronouncement that his nation is on “combat readiness” has caused a fall in stock prices. In a recent military broadcast, Jong-il stated that “We do not hope for war, but if South Korea, with the United States and Japan on its back, tries to attack us, (we) will finish the task of unification left undone during the…(Korean) war (in 1953).” That task of unification, according to the Associated Press, could include “powerful nuclear deterrence.”

Jong-il has also threatened violent retaliation if additional sanctions are placed on North Korea by the United States and the European Union, a move both nations have seriously considered.

The U.S. will protect its ally

UPI reports that a recent Angus Reid Public Opinion survey showed that more than half of U.S. adults expect a war between North Korean and South Korea soon. Less than half of respondents were opposed to U.S. involvement. The U.S. would almost certainly be involved if war were to occur on the Korean peninsula, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has pledged on numerous occasions following the Cheonan incident that the United States will protect their South Korean ally in the event of hostilities.

Saber rattling and business chattering

American consumers, dealers and importers of products made in South Korea are very worried about the prospect of a New Korean War, reports The Detroit Bureau. Setting aside the potential for tragic loss of life on all sides and the United States’ arguable over-commitment in Iraq and Afghanistan, business numbers could also suffer. Hyundai, Daewoo, LG, Wal-Mart, Best Buy and a host of other big-box retailers would be severely impacted. South Korea’s economy would take a nosedive amidst the chaos of war, sending refugees into China who would be a severe drain on the Chinese economy. Dominoes would continue to fall, and the United States would not avoid the collision entirely.

America wants South Korean products

Considering reports that South Korean manufacturers are largely unprepared for the possibility of a New Korean War, shipping lanes would likely be shut down or severely impeded. Even with the North Korean military reportedly in shambles – although accurate information on such topics is difficult to determine with certainty – the impact of violent conflict would be felt. No new products or parts coming out of South Korea would make things difficult for the American market.

Sources:

Associated Press

The Detroit Bureau

Front Page Magazine

Real Clear Politics

UPI

U.S.-S. Korean war games a threat to peace, claims N. Korea

What Vladimir Putin (right) may be saying: "I agree, Kim. The Americans do owe you $65 trillion." (Photo: Wikipedia)

Reparations payments have been an inseparable part of post-war recovery for centuries, and now North Korea’s Kim Jong-Il wants a piece of the pie. The Australian Broadcasting Company reports that North Korea is demanding – not suggesting; demanding – that the United States pay nearly $65 trillion U.S. in reparations for “six decades of hostility.” To be precise, KCNA, the official state-controlled news agency of North Korea, reports that just compensation for the tribulations suffered since the division of the Korean peninsula in 1945 is $64.96 trillion.

What can North Korea buy with $65 trillion?

Perhaps with $65 trillion North Korea will be able to afford better industry, not to mention sensitivity training to help smooth over their issues with human rights violations. While it is difficult to take accurate assessment of North Korea’s human rights issues, Wikipedia indicates that Amnesty International has enough data to suggest that major sanctions against North Korea are warranted. The Korean War created a mass refugee exodus and divided Korean families, which in turn led to food shortages. UN troop movement (as well as bombardment) under U.S. leadership allegedly led to the near-collapse of society in North Korea. The nation was not expected to last, yet last it did. The strife of war caused as many as 750,000 divided families according to Korean Studies Review, a problem that continues to haunt that area in modern times.

Commemorating anniversary number 60

The Korean War occurred 60 years ago, and North Korea and Kim Jong-Il likely decided it was an opportune time to remind the world of what they claimed was 5 million North Koreans “dead, wounded, kidnapped or missing.” In addition, they claim that U.S. sanctions have made their economic recovery nearly impossible. These sanctions date before North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006, says KCNA. None of this takes into account any of the suffering numerous world sources show that North Korea inflicted upon its own people.

Sources:

Australian Broadcasting Company

Wikipedia

Korean Studies Review

Visit North Korea:

North Korea news about the belligerent nuclear armed dictatorship is trying the patience of world leaders and tanking the stock market. Flickr photo.

North Korea news is dominating the headlines, scaring stock market traders and trying the patience of world leaders. Crass and belligerent as a rule, North Korea has turned its international misconduct up a notch lately. The nuclear-armed dictatorship can’t feed its own people attacked and sank a South Korean ship in March. After all available evidence implicated North Korea, South Korea responded with a naval exercise on Thursday. In return, the North severed a hotline between the two nations set up to prevent confrontations. Analysts trying to figure out the mysterious nation said North Korea’s behavior is related to the upcoming succession of power from dictator Kim Jong-il to his son Kim Jong-un.

The North Korea nuclear test

The first North Korea nuclear test in 2006 started painting a picture of a more desperate, impoverished dictatorship that would rather blackmail than borrow money. The Washington Post reports that since President Obama took office, dictator Kim Jong-il has launched missiles, conducted a second North Korea nuclear test and seized a pair of U.S. journalists. In March a North Korean submarine torpedoed and sunk the South Korean warship Cheonan in South Korean waters, killing 46 sailors. This week, after South Korea halted aid and trade to Pyongyang after evidence from the Cheonan sinking implicated the North, the North said it would sever relations with its neighbor. It also threatened more North Korea misbehavior if South Korea sees a U.N. Security Council resolution imposing additional sanctions.

Cheonan ship sinking

After the Cheonan ship sinking, North Korea news analysts are laying out another theory about the most recent boorish behavior from the Pyongyang regime. It could be part of an effort by 69-year-old dictator Kim Jong-il, who recently had a stroke, to establish his 27-year-old son as his successor in the family dynasty. The New York Times reports that no other explanation makes sense. To rational minds, the North’s accelerating confrontation is self-defeating. But it makes sense to Kim Jong-il. He needs to create a warlike atmosphere against a foreign enemy to rally public support. As for the Cheonan ship sinking, giving his son credit for planning and ordering a successful naval attack in a disputed sea border with the South boosts Kim Jong-un’s credentials as a “ruthless leader” who can command the military.

North Korea news: one thing for certain

North Korea news about such an isolated country is conjecture most of the time. At present the succession theory for North Korea’s recent provocations can only be a guess. CNN contributor Fareed Zakaria said until now North Korea nuclear tests could be understood as blackmail — make trouble, get paid off, then back off. Zarkira added that in the past, there has been considerable tension between South Korea and the United States on how to handle North Korea. With the Cheonan ship sinking, things are definitely not business as usual anymore.  Now the United States and South Korea are united in wanting to send North Korea’s leaders a very strong signal that they really have crossed the line, even if they can’t figure out what they’re thinking.

North Korea stock market fear

North Korea’s stock market influence continued to be felt this week. When the North Korean government ordered its citizens and troops last week to be ready for combat, investors ran for cover. In comments about the North Korea stock market connection to MarketWatch, Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers, said “The words of the North Korean leader commanding his troops to be battle-ready are yet another excuse for markets to recoil once again.”

Relations are not exactly warm and friendly between the two halves of Korea. Image from Wikimedia Commons.

The Asian Pacific region is in a volatile state as a result of mounting and dangerous tensions between North Korea and South Korea. North and South Korea have never been friends, but the current situation is not to be taken lightly.  Nearly 50 South Korean sailors were killed when their vessel was sunk in Korean waters, and South Korea has implicated the North in the sinking.  Relations are being cut off between the two countries, which have been getting worse for more than half a century.

North Korea implicated in sinking

On March 26, a South Korean naval vessel sank, and 46 sailors were killed. South Koren President Lee Myung-Bak directly blamed North Korea for sinking the ship. According to The Guardian, part of Myung Bak’s initial changes once elected to office in 2008 included to reversing 10 years of foreign policy with South Korea’s authoritarian neighbors, by cutting back on aid shipments and demanding North Korea halt development of nuclear weapons. North Korea is highly dependent on South Korea, as they receive emergency loans of food and other materials on a regular basis.

North Korean army on alert

The North Korean army has been put on alert, and South Koreans are also preparing for less-than-diplomatic scenarios. It is believed that the cessation of unconditional aid from the southern half of the Korean Peninsula has caused Pyongyang to adopt a far more hostile mood, and it was announced the city would be expelling South Korean personnel from the joint industrial zone near Kaesong.  No official word has yet come from Kim Jong Il, but there is expected to be a U.N. resolution made sometime in the near future.

Is history about to repeat itself?

It isn’t clear whether this will lead to war or not, but regardless, this is not good.  North Korea is dependent on South Korea, albeit not as much as to China, on aid shipments, and South Korea is somewhat dependent on North Korea for industrial products. It is in the self interest of both to resolve this situation quickly and allow cooler heads to prevail.

Thank you, Mr. Clinton. (Photo: thefrisky.com)

Not that Hillary couldn’t have gotten the job done. She’s more than capable. But Bill had already established a relationship with the North Korean government; they’ve even requested to meet with him specifically a few times over the past 15 years.

What job am I talking about? After “exhaustive conversation” with Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang, North Korea, Bill Clinton has managed to secure amnesty for American journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee. Ling and Lee had been detained in North Korea since March. The women allegedly crossed the China-North Korea border inadvertently, but in crossing without authorization, they violated North Korean law. Their sentence was 12 years of “reform through labor.”

For amnesty, a special pardon

Heejin Koo reports for Bloomberg that not only did Mr. Clinton’s negotiations with Kim Jong Il secure the freedom of the American journalists, but it may have made headway toward deescalation of North Korea’s growing nuclear weapons program. Despite the fact that negotiating terms of amnesty constitutes an acknowledgment that Ling and Lee violated North Korean law, the results will no doubt be more than satisfactory for their friends, family and anyone else concerned with freedom from oppression.

Yu Ho Yeol of Korea University in Seoul said that Bill Clinton’s successful exchange with Kim Jong Il “will certainly serve as a turning point in the U.S.-North Korean dialogue.” I’d like to suggest that they import cash advances and payday loans with no faxing, but one thing at a time. If you want them, however, apply right here:

What made the difference?

It is true that Bill Clinton is an excellent speaker and negotiator. His previous exchanges with North Korea may have made the difference, but there is a rumor circulated by North Korean Central News Agency that Clinton had been empowered to deliver a “special message” from President Obama. However, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs denied this.

This is not the first successful visit a former U.S. head of state has made to North Korea, however. In 1994, former President Jimmy Carter met with Kim Jong Il and was able to negotiate a freeze of the country’s nuclear activity at the time. This was followed up by visits from President Clinton in 2000 and then Secretary of State Madeline Albright, both of which were for the same purpose as Carter’s visit. However, it was revealed in 2002 that North Korea had resumed their nuclear program in secret, and testing commenced by 2006. The testing culminated in at least a dozen missiles being tested this year, despite international pressure against such action. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton obtained U.N. sanctions against North Korea as a result.

Calling the “New York channel”

Bill and Il (Photo: Bloomberg.com)

Kim Jong Il and North Korea had stated openly that they would not return to the table for nuclear talks with the U.S., China, Russia, South Korea and Japan. But just last week, they expressed interest in negotiations involving Bill Clinton or “a high-ranking Obama administration official,” according to South Korea’s Yonhap News.

Apparently much like the Bat Phone, Kim Jong Il’s administration had a kind of hotline that may have been established through Bill Clinton.  They used it to contact Congressman Bill Richardson on multiple occasions. Richardson had previously been President Clinton’s contact at the United Nations, and he was able to negotiate the release of an American pilot who’d been shot down, as well as the release of a U.S. citizen who’d been accused of crossing into North Korea in 1996. Much like Laura Ling and Euna Lee, this citizen had been accused of spying.

Does Bill Clinton have the magic touch when it comes to amnesty? Depending upon who you ask, he definitely has something that’s magical…

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