Another casualty of the growth recession. (Photo Credit: CC BY/khteWisconsin/Flickr)

Think it’s time to celebrate economic recovery? Don’t get cocky, suggests Investor’s Business Daily. In this job-starved economy, we’re already living a kind of double-dip recession that economists call a growth recession.

What’s a growth recession?

When economic growth is so low that it creates net unemployment, that’s growth recession. Growth recession can also suggest underachievement, or below-potential growth in such areas as job creation. Job contraction typically means that a country’s real gross domestic product is expanding, but too slowly.

Numbers in a tailspin

Here are just a few of the signs that a growth recession is here, writes Investor’s Business Daily:

• ADP Payroll Services found that 38,000 private-sector jobs were created in May 2011. That’s 100,000 short of the minimum goal economists had marked for economic growth.
• Employment consultant company Challenger, Gray & Christmas noted that 37,135 jobs were cut in May, a 2 percent increase from the previous month.
• U.S. housing prices fell 4.2 percent in the first quarter.
• The Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage application index fell 4 percent in May’s final week.
• The Institute for Supply Management’s factory activity index – an indicator of U.S. manufacturing health – dropped from 60.4 in April to 53.5 in May, the lowest score on the index since September 2009.

Re-enter the recession

U.S. gross domestic product growth was reported at 2.7 percent in May, which most economists believe is insufficient to create private sector jobs and beat back unemployment. Match this uninspiring growth with continued frantic borrowing by the U.S. government ($1.5 trillion estimated for 2011), and avoiding a prolonged double-dip recession seems impossible.

According to Michael Pento, senior economist at Euro Pacific Capital, the U.S. is following the wrong formula for economic health.

“Genuine government stimulus comes from low taxes, stable prices, reduced regulation and low debt,” said Pento. “Our economic policymakers have scrupulously avoided such remedies.”

Summer 2011 will bring economic déjà vu , says The Indypendent. The Federal Reserve is backpedaling; spending cuts and tax increases on the city and state level are in progress, and federal spending is pointing downward. Combine everything, and the U.S. will likely face not just a growth recession, but a full-blown return to depression.

Growth recession at teatime

Sources

Growth recession Wiki

The Indypendent

Investor’s Business Daily

Despite the downturn of the past few years, Americans still believe in housing as a great investment. Image from Wikimedia Commons.

A recent survey indicated that most Americans think real estate is a good investment. The value of the average house has dropped by nearly a third since the housing recession began in late 2007, and nearly a third of all homes are worth less than the amount that is owed on them. Housing prices will eventually begin to appreciate, but the process will take a while.

More than 80 percent of Americans have confidence in real estate

A recent survey revealed that despite the economic downturn, most Americans still have confidence in real estate as an investment. The Pew Research Center, according to Reuters, found that 81 percent of Americans felt real estate was still the best long term investment. More than 2,000 adults were surveyed by phone by the Social and Demographic Trends project, part of the Pew Research Center, and 37 percent “strongly agreed” that a house is the best long term investment, and 44 percent “somewhat agreed.” Most people believe that housing values will recovered within three years, but 23 percent said that they wouldn’t have bought their house if given the choice again.

April showers and May flowers

Realtors, according to MSNBC, are hoping that sales pick up during the spring and summer of 2011 and the current trend of slowing sales is reversed. Realtors and real estate industry analysts are concerned that the number of underwater homes and lower demand will keep home sales and home values down for some time. However, the National Association of Realtors is expecting an increase in home sales of 7.4 percent this year. One of the biggest complaints from the real estate industry has been that lenders are being too stingy, and standing in the way of the recovery that would benefit them by being too conservative with loan capital.

Downturn fuels skeptics

Skeptics and critics of the real estate industry have intensified their stance against home ownership, a cornerstone of the American Dream. An article on the USA Today website quoted Robert Shiller, co-founder of the real estate tracking Case-Shiller Index, as saying that people buy houses for security or lifestyle reasons. Another economist in the same piece found that a house only yields a 6 percent return on average. With depressed prices, along with agent fees and other closing costs, it may be far lower than that for many people.

Sources

Reuters

MSNBC

USA Today

Home sales have been increasing, but home values are declining. Image from Wikimedia Commons.

Nationwide home prices are declining, but home sales are beginning to rise. The past year has been volatile for real estate, but more people have been consulting with loan lenders to purchase a home. The low prices are thought to be the reason for the spike in purchases.

Wealthy and investors buying houses again

Figures for nationwide home sales from the National Association of Realtors indicate that an increasing number of people are purchasing homes, according to CNN. Home sales rose 2.7 percent over January 2011, to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.36 million per year. The increase is also a 5.3 percent improvement over January 2010, marking the first time in seven months that home sales have been higher than figures from a year ago. However, the increase may be bolstered by people who don’t need to go to loan lenders to finance a home purchase. The number of cash purchases was 32 percent of all sales, up from 26 percent in January 2010. Sales to investors made up 23 percent of sales, which accounted for 17 percent of home sales in January 2010.

Foreclosures may have made up difference

The increased number of cash and investor purchases likely is due to deep discounts available on foreclosed properties. Distressed properties, according to Bloomberg, accounted for 37 percent of January 2011 home sales. More homes are available at rock bottom prices, and many a loan company is anxious to get a home off its balance sheet. There aren’t many people who have enough instant cash to pay for a home out of pocket, even one sold at half its value. The median home price has declined 3 percent since January 2010, to $158,800.

Home prices dropping

Many major metropolitan areas are still experiencing declining home values, according to USA Today. The Standard & Poor’s Case Shiller Index recorded drops in all but one of the 20 major cities it tracks. Only Washington D.C. did not see home prices decline. Areas with inflated real estate values such as Arizona, California and Florida have experienced the worst in decline, but southern states like Mississippi and Alabama are also experiencing price declines. The rise in sales may signal reversing demand, and many economists believe 2011 will be a year of dramatic recovery.

Sources

CNN

Bloomberg

USA Today