Production is on the rise

If you need easy loans just to make it from paycheck to paycheck, and even then you could still use some extra cash, take heart. Recently there have been hopeful signs that the current recession is coming to an end.

At the end of July, the government reported that the real gross domestic product (GDP) fell at an annual rate of only 1% in the second quarter. Manufacturing activity rose to its highest level in the last year. Car sales jumped 15% and manufacturers are ramping up production. Based on the data now available for July, experts are predicting that the GDP will increase by as much as 3% in the second quarter.

Home sales are on the rise

Another encouraging trend is that existing home sales are on the rise. Between April and May, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of house prices fell just 0.2%, the smallest decline in the past two years. Stabilizing house prices are expected to reduce mortgage-loan defaults, shore up bank balance-sheets and improve the flow of credit.

Oddly, unemployment is also on the rise

Employment, however, is the single most important economic benchmark, and the outlook on that front remains grim. Unemployment rates are still on the rise, which is surprising given that economists generally predict that an increase in the GDP will be accompanied by a decrease in the unemployment rate.

The accuracy of this rule of economics, called Okun’s law, has been disputed, however; and according to Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, Okun’s law would have predicted a national unemployment rate of only 8.6% during the second quarter of this year, whereas the actual rate averaged 9.3%.

Many factors influence the rising unemployment rate

Several factors may be at work in the discrepancy between the improving GDP and the worsening unemployment rate. Last week, the government revised earlier data to show that the GDP has declined a cumulative 3.7% (rather than 2.5%) since the end of 2007, tying with 1957-58 as the deepest recession since the Great Depression.

Also, expanded unemployment-insurance benefits are encouraging some workers to keep looking for jobs rather than drop out of the workforce altogether, which according to the government, could add as much as a half percentage point to the unemployment rate. Similarly, dissipation of wealth is driving people to look for employment rather than retire or stay at home with the children.

Another factor may be that employers have been quick to slash payrolls. Businesses are budgeting more conservatively because of the credit crunch, and many are pessimistic about an eventual economic recovery.

Whatever the explanation, productivity is rising and so is unemployment. According to a recent article in The Economist, Robert Hall of Stanford University, head of the academic committee that identifies and assigns time frames to recessions, says Okun devised his law in an era when productivity usually fell during recessions: “When productivity rises, the law fails.” Okun’s law, he says, is “obsolete.”

The rise in production may be a false reading

Employers are not likely to do much hiring until it seems reasonably certain that the new growth in production will continue. And some economists are doubtful that what we are seeing is real growth. These experts attribute the recent increase in production to the replenishment of inventory after an extended period of filling new orders from existing inventory in idle factories. They point out that inventory replenishment gives production a temporary boost without a corresponding increase in consumer demand.

The federal cash-for-clunkers program may also have given production an artificial boost. Recent car sales have been strong, in large part because of the program, which offers subsidies of as much as $4,500 to people trading in older, higher-emissions vehicles for newer, more fuel-efficient cars. But the $1 billion set aside for the program, which was supposed to run for several months, was depleted within the first week. The House of Representatives has now voted to spend an additional $2 billion and the Senate is expected to do likewise. But cars bought now will mean fewer cars bought later.

Numbers have a way of changing

And one more qualification: Government figures are notoriously subject to revision. Even the Great Depression is getting worse. According to the latest revisions, the GDP fell 26.7% (rather than 26.6%) between 1929 and 1933. In another 50 or 60 years, or as soon as next week – who can say? — today’s fresh new growth in production may never have happened.

“The time at our disposal each day is elastic; the passions we feel dilate it, those that inspire us shrink it, and habit fills it.”
- Marcel Proust, “Remembrance of Things Past”

When something that was a cherished part of your childhood goes away, inspired days are replaced by tomes of old habit. It is a cause for sadness. Such is the case for many who grew up in Chicago during the past 81 years, for Kiddieland soon will be no more. Even if the owners borrow money or a get a quick loan, it won’t change the fact that the Chicago institution is going to close.

The city’s oldest operating amusement park

Kara Spak reports for the Chicago Sun-Times that after 81 years of operation, Kiddieland will be closing its doors come Fall 2009, when the tourist season closes. That’s when the owner’s current lease on the park expires, according to co-owner Tom Norini.

Kiddieland was founded in 1929 in Chicago’s Melrose Park. The closure follows a dispute between the park and land owners.

“It’s sad and it’s disappointing but it’s just a business thing,” Norini said. The park, which featured the types of rides and games ideally suited for young children, was a Chicagoland tradition.

Forgetting your worries

The lease for the Melrose Park institution is currently held in a land trust by the family of Arthur Fritz, Kiddieland’s founder. Fritz opened the park during the Great Depression with the hope that it would provide temporary sanctuary for families from the economic troubles of the day. The current recession has brought back echoes of the Great Depression, so it’s a shame to see such places for family fun just disappear.

Over the years, members of the extended Fritz family have managed Kiddieland, including Tom Norini.

The land owners wanted to close them sooner

According to Spak, there was a dispute between the Fritz family and the family that owned the Melrose Park land upon which Kiddieland is located. This dispute made its way into a courtroom in 2006, where the landowners attempted to break Kiddieland’s lease with a lawsuit. Admittedly I am not privy to all of the details, but I find it disconcerting that the legal system could have taken this treasure away from children even sooner. Thankfully, it didn’t happen.

No anger, just sadness

“There’s no anger or animosity,” Norini said. “The land trust has been very good to us and given us a very attractive lease rate.”

“We don’t have a huge audience but we have a very loyal audience,” he continued. “That audience renews every time there is a new generation born.”

Kiddieland’s last day is September 27. If the landowners simply want more money, perhaps every single working Chicagoan who enjoyed the park as a youth can borrow money in the form of a quick loan and help save Kiddieland. It would be a worthwhile investment in the joyous past.

Related Video:

OK, can we really hide this anymore? We’re in a depression. That’s why it’s very important that we find any means necessary to make our dollars stretch. That’s what 93-year-old Clara Cannucciari has been doing since America’s last Great Depression.

Lindsay Goldwert of ABC News reports that Cannucciari, a great-grandmother, knows her way around a kitchen and knows how to prepare cheap, nourishing, quality meals. According to Ms. Cannucciari’s blog (she has one, don’t you?), her food is so tasty that she gained weight during America’s last Great Depression. You can learn about that and more by checking out her cooking show blog, “Depression Cooking with Clara.”

She learned from her mother

“My father had to have his pasta every day. And my mother insisted we always have a little meat too,” Cannucciari said. In fact, she and her brother liked meat so much that they would pretend to be sick in order to get more, despite the rationing that was necessary during the Depression.

Cannucciari was born in Chicago in 1915. She attended high school until she was a sophomore, when she had to leave to work for her family. At 20, Cannucciari worked for Hostess, filling Twinkies with creamy filling.

Spontaneous culinary creation

Cannucciari currently lives in upstate New York and enjoys how much people are enjoying “Depression Cooking with Clara.” According to Goldwert, the entire project began with Clara’s grandson filming her in the kitchen, making the meals he knew and loved as a child.

“I wasn’t sure if I could capture the magic of her storytelling and the details of the cooking at the same time,” he says on her Web site. “There are no second takes with Clara. If she did it once she doesn’t feel the need to do it again.”

Keep it good and simple

A Depression is serious business (or lack thereof). Hence, families need to watch how much they’re spending on everything, food included. As a good place to start, Cannucciari recommends pasta. “Any kind. Have it every night, sometimes with meatballs. Salads you can make with salt, pepper and oil. And then you can always have some Italian bread. There’s no secret. It’s just there. It’s simple and it’s good.”

Save money while feeding your family. Watch “Depression Cooking with Clara.”

I spend a lot of time here at your Number One source for payday loans online reporting on the doom and gloom that is today’s economy. But every once in a while, I like to seek out some lighthearted news to brighten things up a bit.

Today I came across a special series on CNNMoney.com that profiled six companies that started up during a recession. Personally, I have one friend who got laid off and is now trying to start her own business. I figure if even little old me knows someone who’s attempting this, there must be plenty of other entrepreneurs born of unemployment out there. Here are my two favorite companies that toughed it out when times were tough.

Thomas Edison makes a name for himself

If nothing else, it should be a comfort to know that this country has weathered far worse than this. We have heard comparisons to the Great Depression, which officially lasted four years in the U.S. Long before that, the country faced a depression that lasted over 20 years, from 1873 to 1896. It was creatively named The Long Depression. Can you imagine what people in that time period would have thought of the idea of people getting payday loans online?

In the thick of the country’s financial crisis, Thomas Edison began work at a laboratory in Menlo Park, New Jersey. In 1876 he invented the first light bulb, and by the end of The Long Depression Edison General Electric was one of the first companies to get a spot on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Today, General Electric is the only company of the original 12 that still remains on the Dow.

Soap and candles

Proctor & Gamble headquarters in Cincinnati

Sometimes it’s good to stick to the basics. During the Panic of 1837 (our country has quite the track record for panicking), “Candle maker William Procter and soap maker James Gamble joined forces to start a small household-goods business in Cincinnati,” reports CNNMoney.

Today, Procter & Gamble is the biggest household goods producer in the U.S., selling brands like Tide, Pampers, Oral-B, Iams, Pantene, Duracell and Pringles. Just goes to show, in tough times people still need soap, even 172 years later.

This good news has been brought to you by your source for payday loans online.

This isn’t the first recession we’ve had in the United States, and it is certainly not the first time that economic downturns have sent people running for payday loans. The U.S. has had at least 18 recessions in its history, and has always recovered. Granted, that may be small comfort, but rest assured that if you need money because of the slowdown of late, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Every recession since the Great Depression has been a relatively short one, and it is likely that this one may be over by the end of next summer.

There have been Recessions since World War 2, but Few that Lasted Long

Since World War 2, the United States has been one of the most profitable and productive nations in the world. It isn’t that likely that this will change. We Americans love to feel a sense of accomplishment through our work and our other endeavors.

1953: The first recession to occur after the Great Depression was a result of a loss in consumer confidence and spending during a period of inflation. The inflation was caused by a scarcity of goods in the wake of the Korean War.

1957-1958: The next round of inflation was caused by a sudden drop in the purchase of raw materials. When the purchase of raw materials dropped as a result of lower demand for them, the amount of production began to trail off, especially in the automotive industry. Unemployment went up, as did inflation, and many sectors of production began to contract until 1959, sending people looking to payday loans for a temporary cushion. The permanent result was an increase in the price of goods from then on.

1973 – 1974: The recession of January 1973 until December 1974 was a result of several factors that came to a head in 1972. In the wake of the 1971 Yom Kippur War, OPEC (or the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) decided to embargo countries that had supported Israel in waging war on OPEC nations. The oil embargo, coupled with stock market crashes as a result of the US being taken off the gold standard, produced an almost two year period of what is known as stagflation, or an increase in the price of goods while the economy shrinks.

The Current Climate

The current recessions’ outlook is not exactly pretty. Unemployment is beginning to rise, and the stock market has had more ups and downs than all of the roller coasters in all of the Six Flags’ theme parks. The housing market has taken an enormous hit, and it doesn’t show signs of recovering anytime soon. However, my forecast is that in the summer of 2009, the recessionary period will be over, and things will resume growing again, so there is hope on the horizon. Yet, there are going to be some changes that have to be made in order for better growth, and more growth to occur, especially with how banks and other institutions lend, but in the meantime, if you have a sudden expense that is harder to surmount because of the current economic climate, and you need emergency funds, you have payday loans available by lenders that won’t cause the stock market to crash.

The Great Depression of the 1930s changed American's. Will this recession do that? (Image via Wikimedia)

Since December of 2007 the economy has been in a recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a payday loan may be all your family can use to get by in these hard times. The NBER has not just looked at lowering production rates, less employment income, and a drop in employment; they have also looked at real personal income. With all of these combined they have finally found that the drop of the economy occurred between November 2007 to January 2008. With this occurring, many households need cash advance loans to get by during this holiday season.

Recession Not Over Soon

There is no exact date that the recession will be over; history has proven it takes about six to 18 months for a recession to be through doing its harm on the economy. The current recession is one of the longest since the Great Depression. This means more than likely you will not be receiving that nice Christmas bonus that you counted on last year to get you by for the holiday season. If you have been paying your bills on time and still do not have enough money to get by try cash advance loans for your unexpected expenses.

Techniques to Save

The Holidays are the roughest time of the year to be without extra money to buy the necessary items one needs. People are not only cutting back on the amount of presents they are buying this year but also watching what kind of food they are purchasing and trying to look for the best deal they can find. As consumers, we are cutting back on things we once saw as necessities like not buying a bottle of water, instead bringing a container from home filled with tap water, or that morning jolt we thought we had to have at Starbucks has now been considered a secondary item, and only purchased on special occasions.

It is not just consumers feeling the pressure of the recession; companies are also feeling these effects. In part we have seen a large increase in the past months of unemployment and that a loss in consumer buying affects companies because they are not getting the capital they need to keep running efficiently. This leads to a lack of bonuses and incentives that normally, in a good economy, companies use to encourage their employees. So, even the boss has to cut back on spending and watch what they do so their company doesn’t end up in the gutter when the recession is all said and done with.

Hard Times for Everyone

Everyone is facing the same problems when it comes to the recession and a lack of money. Do not feel alone in these hard times; everyone is making cutbacks somewhere in their lives to make up for increasing prices on necessities. We all feel the economic pinch that is being caused by the recession. So if you are following some of these techniques and still are having problems coming up with extra cash for necessary items you need, try cash advance loans for a little extra assistance.

And speaking of recession…

Did you know that America has been in a recession since December 2007?

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has proclaimed that the U.S. has been in a recession since then, making official what most Americans have already believed about America’s slumping balance sheet.

NBER is a private group of leading economists who chart economic cycles. That it’s taken this long to determine when the current recession began isn’t surprising, considering that it takes some time to declare when a recession starts because of the final readings that must be analyzed.

What are the causes?

The downturn in the labor market throughout 2008 has been significant. Employers reduced payrolls by 1.2 million jobs – and that is just through October! Some economists predict that November will show a loss of 325,000 more jobs.

Personal income, industrial production, wholesale and retail sales all peaked between November 2007 and June 2008 according to NBER. Since then, there has been a consistent downward slide. Gross domestic product is also considered.

Wait. Isn’t a recession two consecutive quarters of economic activity decline?

No. And NBER did not give any cause for this recession. Yet it doesn’t take too much insider knowledge to see that America’s housing downturn since 2006 is a big culprit. The fall of housing prices from peak levels cut deeply into both further building and purchases.

In turn, this also caused a sharp rise in foreclosures. Then more dominoes fell, including the banking and credit crisis. The situation is not hopeless, but it is bleak.

The current recession is one of the longest downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930’s. The last two (1990-1991 and 2001) lasted eight months each, per NBER.

Focus on what we must accomplish

In a statement, White House Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto said that even though the recession is official, it is more important to focus on the steps being taken to fix the economy.

“The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that’s where we’ll continue to focus,” he said. “Addressing these areas will do the most right now to return the economy to growth and job creation.”

How long will it go?

What’s the best case scenario? Some economists say that the economy will hit bottom by second quarter 2009. That would be the longest recession in America since the Great Depression.

Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute, has indicated that time will heal the wounds:

All the hand waving and real cash that policymakers are throwing at the problem won’t change the fact we’re stuck in this nasty recession. The ultimate cure of a recession is letting it run its course. Even with indicators in a tailspin, this still is only a very severe recession. There’s lots of gloom, but we don’t see doom.

We’re going to have to ride this out

Ever hear of a Kondratieff winter? Well, it appears we’re there now. Fed Chief Bernanke is suggesting a write down of part of the principal outstanding credit balance, rather than doing things like reworking mortgage terms or pushing more toward bankruptcy. It will take time, though. And perhaps a new gold standard (see video below).

For those of us in a temporary lurch due to that trip to the emergency room or broken fuel pump in the commuter car, payday loans are available. Doesn’t take long to apply for payday loans, either. Don’t borrow more than you can easily repay and look for budgeting solutions that will help you in the future. Changing habits takes time; ride it out.

The official news is finally in regarding the recession that the American economy has been enduring.

Experts with the National Bureau of Economic Research said that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007.

This may not sound like news to most as many have likely felt the impact of America’s latest recession in their day-to-day life already. Many consumers have had to rely on payday loans or other financial strategies a time or two just to avoid excessive late payment penalties on their home mortgages; that is if they still have a home.

Foreclosures are being reported in record numbers, bank fees are rising to cover the lost revenue from mortgage defaults, and unemployment numbers are up from failing businesses closing their doors, or downsizing to brave the pending storm ahead.

Will You Lose Your Job?

What started as a mortgage crisis may become like that of the Great Depression or worse!

It is reported that over 1.2 million jobs were lost in the first ten months of 2008 and that number continues to grow rapidly as businesses fail to cope with the ripple effect of the mortgage crisis.

November, the eleventh month of 2008 is showing an estimated loss of 325,000 jobs. This is a staggering number which shows that this recession may be far from over.

Companies Are Crashing

Below is just a small list of the many well known and reputable businesses that have been forced to downsize or close their doors due to current economic pressures.  They couldn’t get bailout payday loans because they weren’t on Wall Street.

Circuit City (filed Chapter 11)

Ann Taylor -closing 117 stores

Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug, and Catherine’s – closing 150 stores

Eddie Bauer- closing 27 stores

Cache – all stores closing

GAP – all stores closing

Footlocker – closing 140 stores and more after January

Zales – closing down 82 stores and 105 more after January

Disney closing 98 stores and more after January

Linens and Things – all stores closing

Movie Galley – all stores closing

Pep Boys- closing 33 stores

Sprint / Nextel closing 133 stores

Ethan Allen – closing 12 stores

Wilson Leather – all stores closing

Sharper Image – all stores closing

K B Toys – closing 356 stores

And many more….

Could another Great Depression be just around the corner?

The current economic downturn is one of the longest since the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Only two of the past 10 recessions since the great depression have lasted longer than a year. Is a depression like unto the Great Depression likely to occur again and if so just how bad will it be? We will attempt to answer these questions below.

Is an Economic Depression Possible?

According to U S news,

By any measure, our current economic suffering pales in comparison with what the nation endured from 1929 through 1939. Still, most economists are predicting a long, difficult period ahead. Could it eventually become a depression? It’s possible — but not likely.

If so, how bad will it be?

A Depression Today Would Be Worse Than That of the Thirties

When comparing societies today with that of the great depression era, we have to take into consideration how society has shifted from agricultural farming to the big cities.

At the beginning of the 20th century, 95% of the population was involved in agriculture or worked their own lands for some, if not most, of their provisions. Today the roles have been reversed with only five percent of the population in agriculture and 95% in the cities. Because the Great Depression effected primarily business and industry, it was those in the cities who were affected the most. The same would occur if a depression on the same scale were to hit our economy today, and in that case, payday loans couldn’t even come close to covering the effects.

The short answer to this question is that a Depression today would be a lot worse.

What to do in the meantime?

Until elected and government officials try to work their magic to soften the blow or try and pull us out of the recession we are currently in, we will have to wait and hope for the best.

White House Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto said that even though the recession is now official, it is more important to focus on the steps being taken to fix the economy.

“The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that’s where we’ll continue to focus,” he said. “Addressing these areas will do the most right now to return the economy to growth and job creation.”

It would be considered well advised however to take steps to prepare for the worst such as stocking up on non perishable food items in the event you may need them later due to job loss or a real depression. This is sound advice no matter what the time or season.

Also, as in any crisis there is opportunity. This may be the chance many have been waiting for. With stocks hitting lows it may be the best time to buy.

It seems as though it is really unfair to do this, especially after the near collapse of the American economy over the last few months, and it seems the government is willing to give some emergency cash to them instead of the American people, in keeping with the theory of supply side economics, which has been a hallmark policy of the last thirty years. It has its critics, and they are certainly right to be so; in certain ways, supply side economics doesn’t entirely work, or at least not as well as payday loans.

As much as it would seem that this is a bad idea, it can really work

One of the leading forces in what’s called macroeconomics, or the study of government and world economies and trade, was a man named John Maynard Keynes. One of Keynes’ biggest contributions was his position that an increase in spending is key during periods of recession, because it stimulates growth in economies better than conservation.

The bailout is textbook Keynes: the $800 billion stimulus puts capital back into the markets.  Even though it may seem that we’re only giving it to ourselves and then paying taxes on our own tax money, we’re getting something for it: we get to re-capitalize the consumer credit market. We can get loans for purchasing homes, cars, and perhaps the most important of all, for college educations. The author of this post would not know a thing about Keynes or economics if it were not for government student loans when I need money for my education.

It is through that very sort of program that others like this author and many, many others, that allows us to have the privilege and gift of a higher education, to cultivate educated, informed, and rational, critical minds to better ourselves, our families, and our society. Many of us desire to see the extra money from the bailout go towards: to give the next generation the same, or better, opportunity to pursue the same, for the good of all mankind. It is vital to the future of America and our children that they do so.

Those who don’t study the past will be doomed to repeat it

Government stimulus and payday loans for recapitalization has worked before. Had it not been for the stimulation of the New Deal, it is possible that the Great Depression could not have been surmounted and overcome for decades longer than it took. Now, many of us, also including this author, are in favor of a self regulating, responsible free market – less government intervention and the best product and price benefiting both consumer and producer/retailer, but these payday loans are for the good of everybody.