The “cell phone effect” could skew election 2010 poll numbers, says Pew Research. (Photo Credit: CC BY-SA/Scott Beale/Laughing Squid)

According to studies by the Pew Research Center, there is a “cell phone effect” that should prompt voters to question the validity of early Election 2010 results. As the New York Times puts it, about a quarter of American adults use mobile phones exclusively. Because many pollsters don’t call cell phones, results can be off by as much as four points, reports the Times.

Cell phone effect: Democrats may be closer than they appear

Pew Research claims that the demographic profile for cell phone-only voters – those who made coining the term “cell phone effect” necessary – is younger adults, more urban in localization and frequently a race other than Caucasian. Interestingly, these demographics coincide with those of many Democrats. That means Democrats could be as much as four points closer to the top than they appear.

Is it simple poll bias, or is it dissatisfaction?

Polls conducted without cell phones by Pew showed Republicans to be ahead by 9.3 points on average. Part of that might be because of the cell phone effect, while the rest could be attributed to dissatisfaction with the Obama administration’s inability to quickly remedy problem issues like unemployment and the housing market. However, many polls that do include cell phones have not shown the same kind of swing for Democrats, so the cell phone effect is most reasonably classified as theory at this point. Pew plans to analyze Election 2010 data more fully after all results are verified.

Finding bias among those considered most likely to vote

According to Pew Research, there is also bias to be found among those considered most likely to vote in Election 2010. Specifically, combined land line/cell phone polls showed a seven-point Republican lead. Breaking that down, half supported GOP Congressional candidates within their districts, while 43 percent backed Democratic candidates. Land-line only poll estimates among those likely to vote would have given Republicans a whopping 12-point lead, claims Pew Research.

Sources

New York Times

Pew Research Center

How the cell phone effect helped Obama in 2008

Online borrowers are not financially disadvantaged

If you don’t already know that American news media is first and foremost an entertainment medium, allow me to be the one to break it to you. Sensationalism sells better than the truth. Biased story selection and reporting slant are inescapable, particularly when you consider the influence of corporate sponsorships.

Conspiracy Theories Refuted

Since Wall Street and the American banking industry are monolithic entities, their money makes a big difference in what the public hears about the economy and the shenanigans that really led to the country’s economic collapse.

The Numbers Tell the Story

So they create smear campaigns that accuse the payday lending industry of preying upon vulnerable segments of society, such as the poor and the elderly. However, many studies of the industry have proven this claim to be false. Looking at applicant demographics for Personal Money Market from June 1, 2009 to October 20, 2009, we see a different picture. Our online payday loan customers are not disadvantaged, too young or too old. They’re at a stage in life where they have financial experience and know how to spot a good deal when options are few.

They Don’t Want You to Know that Payday Loans are Useful

Consider all customers who applied for an online payday loan on Personal Money Market (accepted or denied), here are some facts to ponder:

• Average age: 35. These are people who have some experience dealing with the financial shocks life can throw your way. As industry studies tend to show that many payday loan customers have young families, it may be safe to say that Personal Money Market’s average applicant is in a position where they need to be careful with the way they handle their finances.
• Average income: $31,690. That’s hardly poverty level, and that’s just for the individual applying. If you’re talking about 35-year-olds who are just beginning to come into their own career-wise, then you have someone who hasn’t reached their maximum earning potential yet. Perhaps their access to certain forms of credit has been limited due to a relative scarcity of liquid assets. This makes payday loans a more easily attainable option in an emergency.
• Average length of employment: 6 years. That’s an indication that the person is dependable, rather than transitory and risky. They’ve been trusted to do their job, which payday lenders definitely take into account.
• Average time at current address: 3 years. Again, this could be seen as a stability indicator. Constant relocation tends to walk hand-in-hand with fluctuating types of employment held and income levels. If a payday loan applicant is entrenched, perhaps they are less of a risk.
• Home ownership: 34 percent. While hardly a majority, this statistic is still significant. More than a third of Personal Money Market’s payday loan customers own their own home. That goes along with steady income and personal responsibility, as they have to make a monthly mortgage payment.
• Average time spent on application form: 4 minutes, 44 seconds. This tells us at least two things. First and foremost, it’s proof that it doesn’t take all that long to apply for an online payday loan. The application asks for standard information to establish a person’s employment, checking account existence, age and identity. It’s easy to complete. What this number might also tell us is that our customers aren’t rushing into the process too quickly; they’re being careful and carefully considering what the application requests.
• Percent of customers who apply for installment plans: 27.76 percent. This addresses another area where media and banking industry critics have it wrong. They claim that payday loans are a certain path toward an endless cycle of debt. Used improperly, they can cause harm. But so can Cheese Whiz. If a responsible customer (most people are responsible in this world, I find) needs to extend their repayment schedule due to unforeseen financial occurrence, installment plans are usually available.
• Percent of returning visitors out of all traffic: 4.64 percent. We hope you enjoy our site; let’s grow this number!
• Percent of applicants who are return visitors: 7.36 percent. We hope you enjoy our site; let’s grow this number! However, keep in mind that this stat also indicates that people who apply for payday loans at Personal Money Market aren’t being “roped in,” as if against their will, to that media-blustered endless cycle of debt.

The Numbers for Approved Applicants

Not everyone who applies for online payday loans at Personal Money Market receive a green light. It’s important that there are standards in place. These protect both lenders and the consumer.

• Average age: 37. Mature enough to know what financial decisions work best for them. Responsible enough to make good decisions for their families. That’s your average Personal Money Market payday loan customer in a nutshell.
• Average income: $36,000 for the applicant only. Above average in many instances, and certainly not too poor to be able to repay their payday loan debt.
• Average length of employment: 6 years. Stable.
• Average length at current address: 3 years. They’ve put down roots. Doing the right thing is important for them.
• Home ownership: 42 percent. That’s almost a 10 percent increase over the average for all applicants. It indicates responsibility and greater financial security. It goes to show that everyone can use a payday loan in a pinch.

Even Declined Applicants Show Experience, Solid Income

• Average age: 34.
• Average applicant income: $30,672.
• Average length of employment: 5 years.
• Average time at current address: 3 years.
• Home ownership: 31 percent.

Some Techie Stats For Our Online Payday Loan Applicants

You’ve heard the whole thing about the “browser wars,” right? While using Internet Explorer could be viewed as a negative in this day and age, the truth is that it has a large market share thanks to the preponderance of Windows software. Here’s a breakdown of what browsers Personal Money Market applicants use.

• Internet Explorer (all versions): 62.37 percent. It’s all about market share.
• Internet Explorer 7: 47.3 percent. Not everyone has upgraded to IE 8 yet.
• Internet Explorer 8: 32.09 percent. Here we go. But why not Firefox or Chrome?
• Internet Explorer 6: 20.57 percent. Nobody’s perfect.
• Firefox: 24.57 percent. This number seems likely to grow over time, although it may never catch IE, which has a big head start.
• Safari: 8.45 percent. Mac users take out payday loans, too.
• Chrome: 2.8 percent. This browser is relatively young, but it’s quite fast. Why not make your online payday loan application process that much faster?

Connection Speed

Personal Money Market customers have proven that they are living in the 21^st century, as at least three-quarters of applicants have access to broadband connections:

• Cable: 41.97 percent
• DSL: 23.83 percent
• T1: 9.99 percent
• Unknown: 20.82 percent. Yes, even international men and women of mystery need online payday loans.
• Dialup: 2.15 percent. I know it’s cheaper, but really? Payday loans can help with that.

So What Have We Learned Today?

Online payday loan customers at Personal Money Market do not fit the negative stereotypes the media would have you swallow hook, line and sinker. They are responsible and consider their options carefully, often because they have an entire family’s financial welfare to consider. They certainly aren’t being exploited. That’s the media’s job.