The “cell phone effect” could skew election 2010 poll numbers, says Pew Research. (Photo Credit: CC BY-SA/Scott Beale/Laughing Squid)

According to studies by the Pew Research Center, there is a “cell phone effect” that should prompt voters to question the validity of early Election 2010 results. As the New York Times puts it, about a quarter of American adults use mobile phones exclusively. Because many pollsters don’t call cell phones, results can be off by as much as four points, reports the Times.

Cell phone effect: Democrats may be closer than they appear

Pew Research claims that the demographic profile for cell phone-only voters – those who made coining the term “cell phone effect” necessary – is younger adults, more urban in localization and frequently a race other than Caucasian. Interestingly, these demographics coincide with those of many Democrats. That means Democrats could be as much as four points closer to the top than they appear.

Is it simple poll bias, or is it dissatisfaction?

Polls conducted without cell phones by Pew showed Republicans to be ahead by 9.3 points on average. Part of that might be because of the cell phone effect, while the rest could be attributed to dissatisfaction with the Obama administration’s inability to quickly remedy problem issues like unemployment and the housing market. However, many polls that do include cell phones have not shown the same kind of swing for Democrats, so the cell phone effect is most reasonably classified as theory at this point. Pew plans to analyze Election 2010 data more fully after all results are verified.

Finding bias among those considered most likely to vote

According to Pew Research, there is also bias to be found among those considered most likely to vote in Election 2010. Specifically, combined land line/cell phone polls showed a seven-point Republican lead. Breaking that down, half supported GOP Congressional candidates within their districts, while 43 percent backed Democratic candidates. Land-line only poll estimates among those likely to vote would have given Republicans a whopping 12-point lead, claims Pew Research.

Sources

New York Times

Pew Research Center

How the cell phone effect helped Obama in 2008

Sometimes it seems like the president just can’t win. For his first year in office, everyone  said he was spending too much. Now that President Barack Obama has announced a spending freeze, Republicans are saying that’s impossible. Democrats are saying he’s pandering to Republicans.

We elected the guy. Don’t you think, to an extent, maybe we should just trust him? Apparently that’s not the American way. Don’t get me wrong; I think a certain level of skepticism is healthy. But I get sick of the whining. Kind of like when people can’t pay back their payday loans, and the direct lender gets blamed instead of the borrower’s poor budgeting.

Conditions to Obama’s spending freeze

Obama’s spending freeze will last until the end of his current term — three years. It isn’t a complete freeze; he says he still will allow military spending. Of course, he’ll talk about this in his State of the Union address tomorrow, and I am sure there will be more exceptions to Obama’s spending freeze. Maybe once he explains the details people will calm down, but for now it appears that pretty much everyone has a problem with it.

Obama says the spending freeze will save $250 million over the next three years, and exactly how it will work will be detailed Feb. 1 when he unveils the budget. The one good thing I have read about Obama’s spending freeze is Kristi Keck from CNN’s comment that Obama’s spending freeze “could help him recapture the favor of centrist voters.”

Negative press

To those who are dismissing Obama’s spending freeze as impossible, I quote Keck again, who points out that this is “a partial, three-year freeze on discretionary spending.” So that doesn’t sound so hard, does it? Still, there’s no shortage of quotes like this one from CNBC:

“This is like announcing you’re going on a diet after winning a pie-eating contest,” said Michael Steel, spokesman for House of Representatives Republican leader John Boehner.

If this was what the Democrats intended to say, they have managed to come close by clinching a deal on healthcare reform. If the news is true, it will be a relief to a number of Americans struggling to meet the basic costs of healthcare. Some people must even take out personal loans to pay for their medical expenses, and it is still not clear whether this deal will reduce the costs of healthcare in any way. That the politicians have even agreed to come close to a deal is in itself a major accomplishment.

High Healthcare Costs

Current figures published in the New York Times (12/19/2009) state that there are 30 million Americans who hold no insurance of any kind. Other reports state that one in three adult Americans or a third of all adults are victims of hypertension, which can lead to heart related ailments. With the costs of healthcare showing no signs of coming down, many people are left with no other options but to use up their savings or look for personal loans. Many consider themselves lucky if they can find monetary assistance from these loans to meet the problems they are facing, but others are not so lucky. One group of patients with renal failures in California required dialysis, but had to forego treatment as the hospital pleaded its inability to treat the patients. To make matters worse, these people found no relief from the legal system as well. It was apparently their fault for being illegal citizens of the country.

Will This Bill Pass?

Perhaps not. The Democrats have declared their acceptance of the bill in spite of facing stiff resistance from the Republicans. The bill looks like it will gain some ground based on the theory that Democrats and Republicans hold an equal number of representatives that approve and oppose the bill. As things stand, however, it looks as though a stalemate may occur. Soothing words have come from President Obama who has declared this moment as a major step forward for the American people. The best part of this deal is that it looks to offer healthcare benefits to the 30 million Americans that are not insured.

Should We Be Happy?

Looking at the reports that are slowly emerging, it certainly looks like there is a reason to be happy. Millions of Americans who had to borrow money from personal loans to meet the many costs of healthcare will now look for some kind of relief in the future. This cannot be said to be true for other people who are living in the country without proper authentication. Others will face better times ahead once the bill has been passed. People looking to buy insurance will now have access to facilities even for pre-existing illnesses, while insurers will have to follow the guidelines set by the government about premiums that they can charge for the older generation. Some people will feel that enough has not been done and will be dependent on loans to take them through difficult times. At least a start has been made that will reduce overall costs and provide relief to a large number of people.

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