Consumer confidence posted a modest gain in August -- data that bumped stocks and eased concerns that anemic consumer spending will derail economic recovery. Charlie Brewer/Flickr photo.

The Conference Board’s monthly report on its consumer confidence index showed that the metric used to gauge economic outlook actually bumped up a couple of points in August. The modest gain gave the stock market a jolt into positive territory Tuesday morning.

Consumer confidence index beats forecast

Consumer confidence rose in August to beat predictions. Bloomberg reports that the increase in the consumer confidence index to 53.5 from a five-month low of 51 in July could be a sign the biggest part of the economy may avoid a further slide that could effectively end a stalled economic recovery. But even with the increase, an economist told Bloomberg that the August consumer confidence figure is at a “stunningly low level.” Even so, higher confidence brings a ray of hope that consumer spending — 70 percent of the U.S. economy — will recover. To do that, companies need to start hiring more. Yet according to the Labor Department, companies created an average of 51,000 jobs from May through July — down from 200,000 the previous two months.

Consumer confidence report details

In addition to the consumer confidence index, the Conference Board report contains other details. MarketWatch reports that more consumers are pessimistic about the present situation of the economy, yet optimistic that conditions will improve. The Conference Board’s present-situation index — a measure of attitudes about business climate and job opportunities — dropped to 24.9 in August from 26.4 in July. The expectations index — a measure of expectations for a better business climate and more job creation — rose to 72.5 in August from 67.5 in July. Consumers planning to buy a home within six months moved to 2 percent from 1.9 percent. People planning to buy a car rose to 5 percent from 4.7 percent. An economist told MarketWatch that despite the August gains, consumer confidence is at “incredibly depressed levels,” compared with previous economic recoveries.

Bump in index doesn’t guarantee consumer spending

A consumer confidence index above 90 indicates a healthy economy, according to the Associated Press. Yet the August bump put the brakes on a sliding stock market Tuesday morning. About two stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Like all recent market rallies, this one is expected to be short-lived. Most economic reports show economic growth is slowing, and the slight uptick in consumer confidence doesn’t guarantee an increase in consumer spending. A high unemployment rate continues to motivate consumer saving and debt reduction — behavior considered virtuous from a personal finance standpoint. But until the job market recovers and people open their wallets, the late-summer slump could continue for the rest of the year and drag the U.S. economy into a double-dip recession.

The Consumer Confidence Index exceeded expectations in May as it increased for the third straight month despite a tanking stock market and global economic uncertainty. Flickr photo.

Consumer confidence and the stock market took markedly different paths Tuesday. The Consumer Confidence Index, fueled by a brightening employment outlook, rose to a level that exceeded expectations. The stock market, on the other hand, dived below 10,000 Thursday afternoon as investors cowered in fear of the European debt crisis and escalating hostilities between North and South Korea.

Consumer Confidence Index report

The Consumer Confidence Index report from the Conference Board, a research group based in New York, said its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 63.3, up from a revised 57.7 reading in April. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected 59. The Associated Press reports that the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index survey — based on a random survey of consumers from 5,000 households between May 1 and May 18 — includes volatile days in the stock market like the May 6 Flash Crash and European debt crisis, but it was completed before the Korean crisis and a 376-point dive on May 20, the stock market’s worst one-day drop in more than a year.

Stock market ignores consumer confidence

For the first time in more than five years more people are eligible for no fax payday loans. The consumer confidence index is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. Tuesday’s report was the third consecutive increase and the highest level since March 2008. MarketWatch reports that the percentage of people who thought there would be more jobs in six months outnumbered the percentage who thought there would be fewer jobs. Meanwhile, when the latest report on the Consumer Confidence Index was released, the Dow Jones Industrial average had fallen more than 12 percent from its recent high of 11,205, reached April 26.

Consumer confidence index data

The consumer confidence index has been rebounding slowly since a record low of 25.3 in February 2009. A reading above 90 indicates the economy is stable; above 100 signals strong growth. Consumer confidence index data means a lot to economists because consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity. CNNMoney.com reports that the expectation index, which measures consumer outlook over the next few months, rose to 85.3, the highest level since August 2007, when it came in at 89.2. Last month, employers added  the most jobs since March 2006, and economists expect payrolls to increase by 500,000 jobs this month, which would be the most since September 1997.

The stock market consumer confidence disconnect

The consumer confidence index and the stock market appear to be on different planets. MarketWatch said that with banks withholding credit and U.S. consumers not spending, it was the $800 billion government stimulus package that jump-started a return to growth in gross domestic production, jobs and more recently consumer confidence. On the stock market planet, investors, after seeing stocks plunge more than 50 percent twice in the past 10 years, are looking for other ways to make easy money.