The Proposal vs. Year One | Which will Win at the Box Office?

Low box office expectations

Cera and Black in "Year One."

Anyone who follows my writing knows I love to make predictions. “Star Trek ” is still leading at the box office right now, right ahead of “Up.” I predict that the movies coming out this weekend, “The Proposal” and “Year One,” will not unseat either of those.

“Year One” might compete a little with “The Hangover,” which is in the No. 3 spot, but I don’t expect historic opening weekends from either of these movies, to say the least.

Head to head

So, aside from the fact that I don’t think these new movies will bring in a ton of box office bling, I do think that they could be somewhat evenly matched. They are very different genres that both appeal to a somewhat small but loyal fan base.

Both of these movies focus on two main characters, all played by famous actors. Jack Black’s followers, Michael Cera’s fiercely loyal cult following, Sandra Bullock’s longtime fans, and some of Ryan Reynold’s fan base will definitely be bringing some quick cash to the movie theater this weekend.

‘The Proposal’ earning potential

Sandra Bullock, who plays lead woman Margaret in “The Proposal,” has many fans, but her star power has faded somewhat over the years. Furthermore, her similar movies, let’s just go ahead and call them chick flicks, haven’t managed to pull in a lot of money lately. “While You Were Sleeping,” which came out in Bullock’s heyday — in between “Speed” and “The Net” — pulled in $182 million worldwide. “Two Weeks Notice,” in 2002, made $93 million. “Miss Congeniality 2,” in 2005 made $48 million, barely paying for its $45 million budget.

Ryan Reynolds, who plays Andrew Paxton opposite Bullock, has a very different fan base. His movies tend to target a male audience, and they tend to pull in less money. The “Van Wilder” series that Reynolds starred in never was a big moneymaker. Furthermore, “The Proposal” probably will not appeal to Reynold’s regular fans. You probably won’t see a whole lot of crossover between the audiences of “Smokin’ Aces” and “The Proposal.”

‘Year One’ will capitalize on humor

Jack Black also has seen better days, but his fans are loyal to the end, and comedy is definitely his strong suit. Black stars alongside a relatively new face to the big screen, Michael Cera. Cera caught audience’s attention in “Superbad,” which made $170 million at the box office, a killing for a teenager comedy. His role in “Juno” helped turn the controversial movie into a box office smash that grossed $143 million in the U.S., despite protests about the movie’s theme and a budget of just more than $7 million.

Black seems to be returning to his usual, loud brand of humor, as seen in “Tenacious D and the Pick of Destiny” and “School of Rock.” His boisterous overconfidence is an excellent foil to Cera’s quiet awkwardness. Because fans of both comedians will definitely turn out for this one, I predic that “Year One” will pull in more box office dollars this weekend than “The Proposal.” Let the games begin!